Supply-Side News Again: Iron Ore Prices Rebound and Surge at the Close [SMM Commentary]

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Today, DCE iron ore fluctuated repeatedly, with the most-traded contract I2505 closing at 826.5 yuan/mt, up 0.79% for the day. Traders showed good enthusiasm for shipments. Steel mills remained cautious, with average purchase willingness, and market transaction sentiment was moderate. In Shandong, mainstream transaction prices for PB fines were 810-815 yuan/mt, up 0-5 yuan/mt from last Friday; in Tangshan, PB fines transaction prices were around 830 yuan/mt, up 5 yuan/mt from last Friday. Today, there was news that Trump plans to announce a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports from all countries on Monday (February 10). This news initially weighed on the steel market, dragging down iron ore prices. However, as the market interpreted the tariff impact as limited, coupled with heavy rains in Brazil again affecting iron ore supply, iron ore prices rebounded and rose by the end of the session. In the short term, supply-side disruptions are expected to continue supporting ore prices, and iron ore prices are likely to fluctuate upward.